Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe 2012 Preview

by Punter's Hero on October 4, 2012

in Latest News, Other Sport

The betting market for this year’s Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe has been shaken up this week by the unexpected withdrawal of three of the most fancied horses. Firstly the globetrotting Snow Fairy met with an injury that brought her season to an abrupt end. This was swiftly followed by the news that last year’s winner Danedream would be an absentee due to an outbreak of an equine virus in Cologne where she is stabled. No sooner had the market been adjusted for their withdrawals than news came through that second favourite Nathaniel would also miss the Group 1 event following some unsatisfactory blood test results.

Below odds are taken from Bet365.com, our top recommended bookmaker.

The chief beneficiary seems to be Aidan O’Brien’s Camelot who has vaulted back into the picture having originally been thought an unlikely runner. The 2000 Guineas and Derby winner was widely expected to clinch an historic Triple Crown last month in the St Leger but found one too good in the shape of Godolphin’s Encke. The St Leger is generally regarded as a poor guide to the Arc has it is over two furlongs further and horses that have tried to take in both events have usually failed badly. Available at 6-1 a week ago, he is only priced at half those odds following the dramatic withdrawals. Frankie Dettori takes over the ride from Joseph O’Brien because the trainer’s son cannot do the weight of 8st 11lb. There is no doubt that he will be a popular choice for punters on Sunday but there is a suspicion that his participation in this event is an afterthought.

Better value could be found elsewhere and the French Derby winner Saonois (8-1) has been supplemented for the race at a cost of €100,000. He won the Prix du Jockey Club with a fine turn of foot, threading his way through a narrow gap to win narrowly. He showed that win was no fluke when following up comfortably in the Prix Niel, again coming from off the pace to finish strongly. Regular jockey Antoine Hamelin rides the horse with great confidence and the biggest concern for his supporters will be hoping that he gets a clear run in the straight.

The ante-post favourite is the Japanese Triple Crown winner Orfevre (11-4) who advertised his Arc claims in the Prix Foy with an easy victory over Meandre. Christophe Soumillon enjoyed a smooth run up the rail that day but the horse took his time to put the race beyond doubt and he could find things happening a little too quickly on Sunday. The Aga Khan’s Shareta finished second in this race last season when she was a 66-1 chance and she is considerably shorter this year. She does have an aversion to soft ground so her supporters should keep an eye on the weather in Paris before investing at her current price of 9-1.

Trainer Andre Fabre has a fine record in this race and is represented by Meandre (14-1) and the improving three-year-old Masterstroke (10-1). He got up close home to beat Gatewood in the Grand Prix de Deauville and will need to step up considerably on that form to feature here. However, with several pacemakers likely to be employed, a strong pace seems guaranteed so it would be no surprise to see him staying on into a place.

3pts win Saonois (8-1)
1pt each-way Masterstroke (10-1)

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